Ignore the Hype

Gareth Daniels is an Authorised Representative, GWM Adviser Services Limited, Australian Financial Services Licensee

As I have mentioned before (and no doubt mention again) when reading articles in the papers, watching news on TV or even listening to the radio to and from work, it is always vital to objectively consider the information we are being given.

As a history student, I was taught to always consider who has produced the source of the information, who their intended audience is and why it may have been produced. That foundation can serve us well when considering decisions that relate to our long term financial security.

At the heart of this is accepting that popular media constantly misuses the word ‘investor.’ Many of you may have heard Peter Thornhill speak or even read his book Motivated Money. He correctly spends time focusing on the difference between speculation and investing; the first being the “buying or selling of commodities or stocks… in the hope of an unexpected rise in the price“¹ and the second being “use of money productively so that an income is obtained.

Peter goes on to note that “speculation is described as investment simply to legitimise activity that has nothing to do with investing.

I read with interest the article This asset manager thinks Australian property ‘calamity’ is coming, so he sold all the firms shares². Consider this article in conjunction with the process of analysing a source:

Who has produced it: A national media organisation that knows doom and gloom predictions sell papers

Who is the intended audience: The misconception that all investors are speculators and all speculators are investors means they are attempting to reach as many people as possible. Regarding the interviewee, I would suggest he is trying to reach future potential customers (pitching for business as he apparently knows better than the market) and those clients to whom they have just returned their money (justification for selling the fund).

Why has it been produced: Again, for the publication it is the desire to get eyeballs on their paper and website and for the interviewee, future potential customers by an apparent display or foresight whilst pacifying those clients to who they have just had their money returned by way of defense of their actions.

Philip Parker may be a top fund manager as the article notes, but by what bench mark? The ASX top 200 is cited in the article, all well and good but it is the capital value of this bench mark that is the apparent measure? I would prefer to measure against corporate profits shared out as income via dividend. I would also not like to get sucked into the yield trap, jumping in and out of different assets and significantly increasing the likely effects of market timing risk.

If values are over inflated then surely it is speculators that are at risk with their hopes of gains at considerable risk that should be worried. Investors who own quality assets for the long term to be in receipt of income, should not even dedicate a second of their time to read an article clearly aimed at speculators. It can become stressful to build wealth via a fund manager who believes that over the long term, through active management³ they can beat the market rather than simply owning the best that the market has to offer. The latter allows you to confidently ignore the short term fluctuations in perceived value and and enjoying the true value of a repeating, tax-effective and increasing income stream over time.

What is intriguing is the (potentially) strategic move by this fund manager. Despite the litany of unfulfilled doomsday predictions that regularly crop up, the article even sites a few, these are readily forgotten, whilst the ones that do appear to come true elevate those that predicated them to genius status. So, this firm and it’s investment team either get lauded as the special few that were able to read the tea leaves correctly, or they simply “enjoy their time off” before returning to the fold to make further predictions; attempting to reach those that believe in speculation rather than investing. All this whilst the rest of us carry on with our investment strategy, focusing on what is important to us and critically analysing the overload of information that we are unnecessarily bombarded with.

 

1. Thornhill, P. (2015) Motivated Money; Sound Financial Advice for the post GFC World, 5th Revision. Australia: Motivated Money, pg 12

2. Patrick Commins, B. (2017) This asset manager thinks Australian property ‘calamity’ is coming, so he sold all the firm’s shares. [online] Business Insider Australia. Available at: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/this-asset-manager-thinks-an-australian-property-calamity-is-coming-so-he-sold-all-the-firms-shares-2017-5 [Accessed 7 Jul. 2017]

3. The belief that a manager knows better than most can pre-empt economic cycles, property bubbles, threats of war and crisis around the world and a whole host of other fads. They are effectively trying to speculate their way to wealth via capital appreciation.

 

Any advice in this publication is of a general nature only and has not been tailored to your personal circumstances. Please seek personal advice prior to acting on this information. The information in this document reflects our understanding of existing legislation, proposed legislation, rulings etc as at the date of issue. In some cases the information has been provided to us by third parties. While it is believed the information is accurate and reliable, this is not guaranteed in any way. Opinions constitute our judgement at the time of issue and are subject to change. Neither, the Licensee or any of the National Australia group of companies, nor their employees or directors give any warranty of accuracy, nor accept any responsibility for errors or omissions in this document. Before making a decision to acquire a financial product, you should obtain and read the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to that product.
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Why You Need To Attend Peter Thornhill’s Presentation

Peter Thornhill has been preaching the Gospel of Australian Index Shares for more than 30 years now, and the message has been unwavering.

Shares in the Australian Index are the safest form of investment one can make.

With many people scared of shares after prices plummeted during the Global Financial Crisis in 2007, Thornhill has been quoted as saying he would relish another GFC, regretting not going ‘hard enough’ when prices were down.

And here’s why:

PT-Picture3-Mar16

The above graph is a case study between two people who invested $100,000 each in 1979. Person A (Yellow) invested $100,000 in an Index Fund, and Person B (Red) invested $100,000 into Term Deposits.

As demonstrated above Term Deposits were doing well in the 80’s when interest rates were high, but have remained steadily low since. The best Person B can hope for is a fully taxable 3%, or in his case $3,000 a year.

On the other hand, Person A’s dividends from investing in the share market are paying $75,000 a year, and the share portfolio is now worth $1.7 million.

Evidently, the graph demonstrates during the GFC the significant drop in both dividends and capital value, but even at it’s lowest point in 5 years, the returns generated from the share market still outweigh that of a Term Deposit nearly nine-fold.

Thornhill’s theory is all about making your money work for you, without having to do any work yourself. What’s so hard about that?

Discipline.

In simple, easy to understand and relatable terms, Thornhill will aggressively challenge your thoughts and explain why people’s impatient behaviour affects their generation of wealth.

Come for a nugget of information, stay for the gold mine of knowledge.

Register here.

 

Please note: The advice in this article is of a general nature only and has not been tailored to your personal circumstances. Please seek personal advice prior to acting on this information.

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